, , & , Modeling multi-level patterns of environmental migration in Bangladesh: An agent-based approach, in S. Kim, B. Feng, K. Smith, S. Masoud, Z. Zhang, C. Czabo, & M. Lopez (eds.), Proceedings of the 2021 Winter Simulation Conference (IEEE Press ). DOI  PDF


Environmental change interacts with population migration in complex ways that depend on interactions between impacts on individual households and on communities. These coupled individual-collective dynamics make agent-based simulations useful for studying environmental migration. We present an original agent-based model that simulates environment-migration dynamics in terms of the impacts of natural hazards on labor markets in rural communities, with households deciding whether to migrate based on maximizing their expected income. We use a pattern-oriented approach that seeks to reproduce observed patterns of environmentally-driven migration in Bangladesh. The model is parameterized with empirical data and unknown parameters are calibrated to reproduce the observed patterns. This model can reproduce these patterns, but only for a narrow range of parameters. Future work will compare income-maximizing decisions to psychologically complex decision heuristics that include non-economic considerations.

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